Darkhorse Players Who Can Finish Top 12

Every year there are players drafted outside of the top 20 at their position who end up producing top 12 value for fantasy. Here are a few names to watch for who have the ability to do it this season if things go their way to take a step forward, have a major bounce back, or just continue what they did last season.

Ryan Tannehill - Silent Stud

Last year a combination of injuries, poor offensive line play, and a group of receivers who couldn’t catch a cold which plagued Tannehill’s season for fantasy football. Despite this, Tannehill finished 7th in yards per attempt among quarterbacks who played at least 6 games and 12th in adjusted completion percentage. Both of these statistics are indicators of fantasy value with the other names being Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Geno Smith who finished top 12 in both of these categories. All of those quarterbacks finished in the TOP 5 for fantasy points last season which means Tannehill’s efficiency can easily push him to being a QB1.

This shouldn’t be that difficult to believe as Tannehill had been a QB1 in the Tennessee offense for the two seasons prior in 2021 and 2022. During these years he had AJ Brown as an alpha receiving weapon and 7 rushing touchdowns in each campaign. Both of which are possible again because the team has brought in DeAndre Hopkins to pair with Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo to give their QB the most well rounded group of pass catchers he has had as a Titan. Pair that with Tannehill’s 6'4'' frame and it is pretty easy to see how he could get in the end zone 7 times again.

Essentially, this isn’t to guarantee that Tannehill will be a top 12 fantasy quarterback, but it is worth noting that he has the size, skill and efficiency measures to be a top end fantasy asset who will be throwing to a talented receiving group. Combine all that with having PFF’s 8th easiest QB strength of schedule for the 2023 season and all signs point to a comeback year for Ryan Tannehill.

James Conner - Volume Vacuum

The argument for James Conner to be an RB1 in 2023 has to start with the expected volume he will have in the Arizona offense. Last year Conner was top 5 in snap percentage among all running backs and top 10 when looking at running backs percentage of rushing attempts for their team. He was also only one of 11 running backs to have over 60% of a team's carries inside the 5-yard line. There is zero indication that this is going to change for the Cardinals as the talent behind Conner consists of unproven, low draft capital options like Keontay Ingram and Corey Clement who will not be taking touches away.

In the receiving game it is the exact same story where Conner was top 10 in routes per drop back and top 15 among running backs in team target shares. With his dual threat skill set James Conner led all RBs in snap percentage over the final 6 weeks of the season. Another high volume season rushing and receiving for him is a safer bet than Jackie Moon hitting a grandma style free throw; Moon don’t miss.

So now what did he do with these opportunities last season? After returning from injury in Week 9, James Conner was a TOP 5 RB in points per game for the rest of the season. We are not talking about a small sample size, over half the season Conner was an absolute stud for a terrible offense. None of that has changed, this offense will still be awful, they will be without Kyler for a handful of games just like the end of last year and Conner will still be a volume beast who is fantastic for fantasy football. No one should be shocked when James Conner finishes as a top 12 RB in fantasy this year.

Diontae Johnson - Target Tank

This is a wide receiver who has proven to this team and the entire NFL that he deserves to be a feature on offense. He has earned himself over 140 targets and 85 receptions in each of the last three seasons. The only other WRs to accomplish the same over those years are Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams. Meaning, Diontae has received the same elite level volume year over year as 2 of 2022’s top 4 fantasy wideouts. Yet, somehow Johnson finished outside the top 30 at the position even though he ranked 7th in expected fantasy points for WRs.

So what happened last year? Simply put, Johnson found it harder to get in the end zone than Happy Gilmore did to tap, tap, tap it in the hole. Somehow Diontae scored 0 TOUCHDOWNS on 86 receptions! That is an outrageous anomaly and he is expected to have touchdown regression back to his levels of the 2021 season when he finished as a top 10 WR.

I mean, how can he not? Diontae still had 10 end zone targets last season, the 15th most amongst WRs, but surprisingly couldn’t find the connection with his rookie QB. Now Kenny Pickett enters the sophomore year where we historically see a jump in touchdown passes, deep shots and overall efficiency for young passers. This is going to be great news for Diontae Johnson and with no sign of his receiving volume changing, it is easy to see the path to a top 12 finish.

D'Andre Swift - Talent Takeover

Last offseason, every fantasy analyst touted D'Andre Swift as a dynamic young running back who fits the perfect mold of a perennial top 12 running back. Unfortunately he fell short of expectations as he didn't fit Dan Campbell's hard-nosed between-the-tackles running style. Swift only ended up getting on the field for 41.5% of snaps. Despite this, the versatile RB managed to finish as the 23rd ranked running back. He did this on under 100 carries, relying on his excellent pass-catching skills and nose for the end zone.

With Swift's move to the Eagles, he enters a high-powered offense under the guidance of new O/C Brian Johnson, and joins a running back room with 259 vacant carries. The Eagles boasted the 10th highest rushing rate and were 4th in red zone scoring attempts last season, indicating ample opportunities for Swift to find the end zone this year. This opportunity could grow if the Eagles aim to preserve Jalen Hurts' health over the entire season and reduce his whopping 165 carry load.

It's hard to imagine Swift not receiving a higher number of carries this year. With over 500 carries to go around, Swift could easily carve out a significant portion of the Eagles' running game - while still giving Rashad Penny, and the rest of the funky bunch their carries. The biggest factor that will vault Swift into the top 12 will be on the shoulders of the coaching staff. If they can carve out some reception for Swift and leverage his strengths we could witness a season for Swift reminiscent of Alvin Kamara's impressive 2020 performance – along the lines of 175 carries, 50+ receptions, and 10+ touchdowns.

Jahan Dotson - Sleeper Sophomore

In a draft class filled with star WRs, Dotson quietly put up a strong rookie year on an abysmal offense. In only 12 games, he commanded a 15% target share, reeling in 35 receptions and 7 touchdowns. Returning from injury in Week 13 and beyond, Dotson was the WR15 in fantasy points per game while leading the Commanders in targets. The numbers bode well for Dotson as he finds himself in good company. Since 2014, there have been 12 WRs who have averaged at least 8.5 yards per reception and had seven or more TDs. The following year, 75% of those WRs followed that up with a top 24 finish, and 58% of them finished inside the top 12.

Now, I hear you - what about Scary Terry Mclaurin? And I'm glad you asked. In the last 5 games of the year, Dotson kept up with the 27-year-old WR - with almost identical yards per reception, yards after catch, and target share, while also having one more touchdown. Oh yea and Dotson also had more WR1 finishes than Mclaurin last year…. In 5 less games. But here's the kicker: Dotson doesn’t have to steal McLaurin's targets to make the top 12 - he needs to steal Curtis Samuel's 64 receptions - a very realistic task.

Looking forward, for Dotson to be elite, he needs Sam Howell to be good. So let’s take a look at Howell; he started 1 game last year where looked promising but made the typical rookie mistakes. With a year to adjust to the NFL and an offseason with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy revamping the offense, it's not a leap to think Howell can be the guy in Washington. The path is laid out for Dotson to take the leap forward and have a true breakout season. So don’t be surprised to see Dotson on the fantasy leaderboards come January.

Tyler Higbee - Boring Beast

Alright this is a boring one, but in an abysmal tight end landscape you shouldn’t overlook the Ram's tight end. Last year he held a 19 percent target share while reeling in 71 receptions on a struggling Rams offense. He has shown year in year out that he is a consistent pass catcher, averaging 61 receptions in his last 4 seasons. The only thing holding him back from consistent top 12 finishes has been his inability to get in the endzone, which is likely to change this year.

The Rams' receiving room is as empty as a Nickelback cover band concert. Outside of Kupp there aren't really any proven WR's; leaving Higbee as the likely second option for Stafford who threw 41 touchdowns two years ago. With Stafford and Kupp healthy the Rams offense has to improve this season. When it does, look for Tyler Higbee to be standing in the endzone doing his best Gronk impersonation.

Higbee doesn't have to set the world on fire to finish in the top 12 again this year. All that needs to happen is for him to continue to hold a 60 reception pace and finally start getting in the endzone. If he can manage this feat it would be no surprise to see him finish top 12, hell even top 5.