Geno Smith: Don’t Write Him Off, He Won’t Write Back

Geno Smith was an amazing story throughout the 2022 NFL season which led him to becoming the Comeback Player of the Year. He led the young Seattle Seahawks team to a 9-8 record which allowed Seattle to claim the final NFC Wildcard spot. All year Geno played consistently well as he threw for over 4,200 Yards and 30 Touchdowns with a Completion Percentage of 69.8% while being top 5 in Air Yards (total and per attempt). These stats made Geno Smith the QB5 overall in fantasy football last season and the QB8 when looking at points per game at the position.

After NFL fans made the mistake of writing Geno off last year it makes me wonder why the fantasy football community is disrespecting him this year! Currently, Geno is being drafted as the QB16 off the board (According to Sleeper ADP); here are a few reasons why he is going to outperform that ADP and should be your late round quarterback target in every draft.

1. Another Year in Pete Carroll’s Offense

Geno Smith walks into the 2023 season with a full year leading the Seattle Seahawks offense and plenty of confidence. Historically, the starting QB in a Pete Carroll offense is a fantasy asset you want dating all the way back to his time in New England during the late 90’s. Since 1997, a QB who has started 15 or more games for a Pete Carroll team has not finished outside the top 12 at the position. Now pair that with the Seattle Seahawks offense being very efficient through the air since 2018 ranking inside the top 10 in passing touchdowns each season and the top half of the league in passing yards. All of this historic data allows Geno to have a floor so safe that Lizzo could tap dance on it.

2. Consistency, Consistency, Consistency

One of the keys to drafting a late fantasy football QB is ensuring the one you take isn’t going to hurt your team on any given week to a point beyond recovery. Geno Smith was the blueprint for this last year and I don’t see any reason that he won’t be again. Not only did he finish as a QB1 in 10 of 17 weeks last season but he only finished outside the top 20 ONE TIME. Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are the only other quarterbacks who accomplished the same last year. Stop treating the quarterback landscape like a roulette table that requires big risk for big reward and place the safe bet on Geno Smith instead.

3. Addition of a New Offensive Weapon

It is no secret that the Seattle Seahawks have a dynamic duo at WR with D.K Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Geno excelled with these two last year while having Marquise Goodwin at the WR3 spot. Now, Geno has been blessed by the Seahawks organization with another very talented pass catcher when the organization spent a first round draft pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba making him the first WR taken during the 2023 draft. This speedster is a huge upgrade for Geno, not only is Smith-Njigba going to make explosive plays after the catch but he will open up the rest of the field for offensive weapons. With this trio of WR's, even Brucie could have played quarterback and produced fantasy points.

4. Fantastic Start of Season Schedule

The QB you take on draft night is someone you want to have confidence in for the whole season but especially for the first few weeks. Thankfully, Geno’s schedule can’t get much easier as the Seahawks start the year against the Rams, Lions and Panthers who were all bottom 12 in pass defense last season. And, when Geno had the pleasure of playing these same 3 NFC teams last year his finishes were QB3, QB2, and QB7! Smith is set up to start the year as well as any QB in the league and has the ability to keep that train rolling all season long. I will be on the Geno Smith train all season long but using him for the first few weeks until Kyler is healthy or Anthony Richardson proves himself is another great strategy.

5. Essentially Free on Draft Night

It is important that you don’t hear what I am not saying. Geno Smith is not going to be the #1 fantasy quarterback to end the year and I have him ranked at QB8 but what there is to love about Geno Smith the most is his draft price. In ADP (according to Sleeper), Geno is going as the 16th quarterback off the board and, in single quarterback, redraft, home leagues, 16 quarterbacks almost never get drafted. This makes Geno essentially free on draft night when you select him with your final pick. In the final round, grabbing last year's QB5, in a proven offense, with improved weapons, and an easy schedule to start the year, seems like a steal on draft night.