Handcuffs or Fistacuffs?: Three Running Backs Who Will Fight for the Backfield

Every year we see starting running backs be replaced like an annoying girlfriend when the younger, sexier option comes to town. Teams will hang on to the relationship they have for a few extra weeks sometimes but eventually they cave and focus their attention on the shiny new intrigue. This can happen because the current option is getting too old, or just isn’t as attractive as before (injury), or because the new girl is just too good to ignore. Last year some of the new girls on the block included Tyler Allgeier, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Isiah Pacheco who all ended up being values at their ADP.

Here are three current back-ups I’d rather draft at ADP then their teams starter because they could take over the starting role before the end of the year:

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren is one of our favorite deep sleepers for 2023 after he showed explosive play ability, high efficiency on touches and has been praised by coaches saying they need to create more opportunities for him. At the same time, Najee Harris has shown extreme inefficiency as a runner, a pass catcher and big player creator through his first two seasons. He has not exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in either year and his fantasy value was held up by late season touchdowns last season as he saw over 65 less opportunities compared to his rookie campaign. Some of this can be attributed to lingering injuries but also because Warren forced himself into a role for this offense as a rookie.

Now going into Warren’s second year his role is expected to grow further and if he can continue being so much more efficient than Harris the team won’t be able to ignore it. As a rookie, Warren was able to hold a better yards per carry of 4.9 compared to Najee’s 3.8, produce more yards after contact per attempt, and force more missed tackles per attempt. In the passing game the story remains the same, Warren produced 7.6 yards per reception compared to Harris’ 5.6 and has drastically more yards after the catch per reception. If Warren can continue to outplay his counterpart in the backfield, it will leave this coaching staff no choice but to let their undrafted sophomore run wild.

Devin Singletary, Houston Texans

Dameon Pierce had a surprising year last season coming onto the Texans roster as a 4th round pick. Then this offseason the Texans went out and signed a proven running back who is only 25 years-old as his competition; Devin Singletary. So why would they do that? Maybe it is because they knew they would be bringing in a rookie quarterback and wanted to have PFF’s 6th highest rated pass blocking running back to protect him. Especially when this same running back ran the 7th most routes out of the backfield which will give this rookie quarterback a safety blanket. Essentially, Singletary is great at the little details and that may be exactly what this Texans team needs.

Now you may be thinking, “Dameon Pierce is a more efficient runner so they won’t replace him”. Let's take a look shall we; Singletary had better yards per carry, higher percentage of explosive runs, a lower stuffed rate plus held a higher percentage of runs to go for over 1+, 3+, 5+ and 10+ yards. So yes, Dameon Pierce can hold the role of between the tackles bruiser but the high quality explosive plays, receiving work and two minute drills may be going to Singletary making him the fantasy asset you want in Houston.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s backfield has been led in fantasy points by Aaron Jones for the past few seasons, so why would that change in 2023? Jones is going to be turning 29 years old this season which is historically where running backs take a big hit in efficiency. This is especially bad news for Jones as he built his career on explosive plays to bolster his yards per touch totals. Last year his yards per reception were the lowest of his career at 6.7 compared with his previous low being 7.5. That major dip is the first sign of a slow down happening in 2023 for a soon to be 29 year old running back.

The most valuable fantasy running backs have two roles, the teams pass catching back and goal line back. It is safe to say AJ Dillon has solidified himself as the goal line option for this Packers offense, outscoring Jones in rushing touchdowns in back to back seasons. Last year, Dillon took 58.8% of the teams carries inside the 5-yard line while Jones handled a measly 17.6%. So what makes us think that he can start to secure more receiving work? Dillon had a more efficient receiving year than Jones last season having a better yards per reception at 7.4, a higher rate of missed tackles forced per reception and generated more yards after contact per reception. He proved himself as an efficient weapon in a pass catching role and time is all it will take for the aging Jones to pass the torch to Dillon.

Honorable Mentions

This article wanted to highlight clear back-up running backs who come inexpensively in drafts, but two guys who are in battles for the starting role that I think could finish the year as the clear lead back are De’Von Achane and Khalil Herbert. These two could end up being major steals at their ADP as well if you are willing to take the shot on talent.